MILANO – Di nuovo, come di consuetudine, pubblichiamo su Comunicaffè il report Ice. Illustriamo quindi l’andamento dell’Arabica in borsa, facendo riferimento ai dati di chiusura. I numeri vengono dal mercato di New York e di Londra.
Ice Arabica coffee
It fell as an extension of yesterday’s performance after weak technical action discouraged the longs, causing liquidation. The spot contract for July delivery fell 345 points, closing at 140.55 cents a pound.
A strong dollar helped pressure commodity prices and the metal complex. Gold for example lost $32 an ounce to close again under the important $1,400/oz price level.
Warm weather is back in the main producing areas of Brazil
It despeals fears of cold in the next five to ten days. In other news, Colombia’s USDA attaché report estimates a recovery in production for 2013/14 at approximately 9.0 million bags.
Ice: i dati sono influenzati dalle condizioni climatiche
Non stupisce che la borsa stessa sia influenzata dai cambiamenti ambientali. Gli stessi che colpiscono e determinano il rendimento del raccolto nei Paesi produttori.
Better weather without La Nina causing weather disturbances will support this estimate. Yesterday CONAB published its estimate for Brazil’s harvest at 48.59 million bags, 2.2 million less than their previous estimate.
This will be the largest off year harvest
That indicates that the biennial cycle is less prominent every day with the off year only differing 4.4% from the on year. In the US, green coffee stocks were up 90,759 bags to 4.86 million bags.
From a technical point of view
The July chart shows prices in a well-defined range with resistance at 150 and support in the 130s.
We have more stock numbers to be released for London tomorrow evening which will be important for the market going forward. Over the last 2 weeks we have received another 212 lots of acceptable grading.
The last report issued on the 2ndMay
It showed a minor reduction of 15 lots to leave a working balance of 12,610 lots. Looking back to the same date last year the position carried was 17,253 lots.
General stock in Antwerp increased by 165,000 bags last month to 5.15 million according to the official reports. Of this increase the Robusta contribution was 6,208 bags to 117,506.
These levels are now approaching the volume carried back in January
On this scenario it would be a surprise if the Exchange stock records any noted reduction.
Exchange officials change the margin requirement for switches increasing initial margins by $20 to $320 per lot effective 21st May.
“Against Actual” trades totalling of 2,060 lots in July substantially boosted volume during the morning in London to set the tone as the board once again attempted to work higher.
More July 2050 Calls
They came together today trading at $47/51 premium amounting to some 700 lots, with another 550 Sept 2250 Calls matched towards the end of the day at $31 racked up option turnover again making up for the slow afternoon in futures.
The performance over the last 2 sessions has continued to encourage the Bull potential as the board holds upside momentum.
Networking exposure from Funds is now very small with the action over the next few days crucial to the next stage of the market.
POTETE SCARICARE QUI IL FILE IN PDF.
